Saturday, August 9, 2008

THE MONTY HALL PROBLEM

The Monty Hall Problem, also known as the Monty Hall Paradox, has intrigued statisticians for years. It goes something like this:

Suppose you're a contestant on Let's Make A Deal, and Monty Hall gives you the choice of three doors: Behind one door is the grand prize: a brand new, shiny Lexus with all the optional extras; behind the other two doors are sheep. 

Let's say you pick Door Number 1, and sly, crafty Monty, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another one, say Door Number 3, revealing a sheep. 

He then says to you, "Do you want to pick Door Number 2?" 

The problem: Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Complicating the problem: What if you prefer sheep?

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